Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Kostyuk and Andreeva are scheduled to meet in the Roland Garros women's draw on 4 June 2026. The Polymarket contract currently prices Kostyuk's advancement at 55%, reflecting modest confidence in the Ukrainian player despite home-court disadvantage for Andreeva at Roland Garros. Settlement hinges on match completion by 11 June; any cancellation, tie, or seven-day delay without resolution triggers a 50-50 split of conditional tokens on Polygon.

Kostyuk has established herself as a consistent clay-court performer, reaching the French Open quarter-finals in 2024 and maintaining a top-30 ranking. Andreeva, the younger Russian prospect, has shown rapid improvement on clay surfaces and reached the Australian Open semi-finals in 2025, signalling genuine breakthrough potential. Historical matchups between players of similar ranking show roughly even probability distributions, though Kostyuk's greater experience in deep Grand Slam runs typically commands a modest edge. The 55% probability reflects this marginal advantage rather than overwhelming favouritism.

Key variables for traders include recent injury reports from either player—Kostyuk has managed shoulder concerns in prior seasons—and draw positioning that might affect fatigue levels before this encounter. Weather conditions at Roland Garros in early June, particularly rain delays that could compress the schedule, carry outsized importance given the seven-day settlement window. Tournament momentum matters considerably; a player entering this match on a winning streak versus one struggling through earlier rounds could shift the implied probability meaningfully in the final days before play.

Methodology

We track Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.