Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri

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Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Max Alcala Gurri are the tennis names behind Polymarket’s current 0% YES pricing on this contract, with positions settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. That headline price implies the market is effectively assigning no weight to Guerrieri advancing as of now, even though independent previews on Thursday morning still had Guerrieri as the narrow betting favourite, with Tennis Tonic quoting him around 1.48 and Alcala Gurri at 2.43 for their Cervia Challenger semi-final.

The main read-through for traders is that 0% on Polymarket usually reflects a contract that is either already resolved in practice, stuck on stale order flow, or priced so one-sided that no one is bidding it higher, rather than a precise forecast of the tennis itself. For context, tennis match markets on Polymarket tend to move quickly once a result is posted by official scorers or feeds, but they can also sit at extreme prices if the underlying event is delayed, suspended, or awaiting confirmation. In this case, the ATP head-to-head listing and live-score pages confirm the fixture between the pair, while the players’ rankings on TennisTemple point to a relatively similar Challenger-level matchup rather than a mismatch.

The catalysts to watch are straightforward: whether the semi-final was actually completed, whether an official winner has been recorded, and whether any postponement pushes settlement into the market’s 7-day fallback window. Sofascore and TennisTemple both list the match for Cervia on 22 May, but if the result is not finalised, Polymarket’s resolution will depend on the on-chain contract rules rather than the scoreline alone. A trader watching the order book should therefore focus on official match status, not just preview pieces or live-score snippets, because a delayed or abandoned match can still settle 50-50 if no winner is determined in time.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.