Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional token structure currently prices Collignon's advancement at 100% implied probability, reflecting either exceptionally strong conviction about the Belgian's form or, more likely, minimal liquidity depth in this early-round matchup. The market settles on 31 May 2026, allowing a week-long window beyond the scheduled 24 May fixture to accommodate delays or interruptions common in clay-court tournaments. At present, USDC backing on Polygon shows no meaningful counter-position, suggesting either the market has reached consensus or traders are awaiting additional information before committing capital.

Collignon, ranked outside the top 200 for much of his career, has historically struggled against players of Vukic's calibre—the Australian currently maintains a ranking in the 40–60 range and has demonstrated consistent Grand Slam qualification. Historical precedent from lower-seeded ATP matchups at Roland Garros shows that outsider players rarely command 100% pricing unless injury reports or withdrawal rumours have circulated. The absence of such news, combined with Vukic's proven clay-court pedigree and recent tournament appearances, suggests the extreme probability may reflect incomplete market participation rather than fundamental assessment.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw confirmations and any injury bulletins released through the ATP's official channels in the fortnight before play. Weather disruptions at Roland Garros frequently cascade across the schedule, potentially triggering the seven-day delay clause. Vukic's recent match results and court-surface performance metrics will provide concrete data points once the tournament draw is finalised and practice sessions commence.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.