Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Raphael Collignon v Casper Ruud at 0% YES today, so the USDC on Polygon is effectively sitting on Ruud advancing unless the market gets a late replay, cancellation, or another settlement edge case. On Polymarket’s conditional tokens, that means a tiny change in match status, rather than a broad view on form, is what would move the contract off zero before the settlement window closes on 27 May.

For context, Ruud has repeatedly been treated by traders as the more reliable Geneva asset: he is a three-time champion at the event and came into 2026 among the headliners again, with ATP reporting Taylor Fritz, Alexander Bublik and Ruud as the main names in the draw. The entry list posted by Gonet also put Ruud inside a strong top-30 field, which matters because Geneva often rewards established clay players once the seedings hold. Collignon, by contrast, is priced here as a much less proven proposition, so a zero line reflects both ranking gap and the market’s assumption that the favourite is the likely survivor if the tie is completed.

The main catalysts are mundane but decisive: final draw updates, any scheduling shifts, and whether the match is completed cleanly inside the seven-day resolution window. Geneva’s official draw page and ATP coverage show the event is still active, and the market description means an abandonment, no-contest, or delay beyond the window could still force a 50-50 outcome. Traders watching the contract should therefore focus less on headline draw strength and more on whether the match is actually played to a finishing result.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.