Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu** at **100% YES** today, which means the contract is effectively already locked to Choinski advancing and the share price is trading as if there is no realistic dispute left on the outcome. On Polymarket, buyers hold conditional tokens settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, so the market price is the crowd’s implied probability of the named result rather than a view on the tennis match in isolation. The key practical point is that this contract resolves on whether Choinski advances against Wu, with a fallback to 50-50 only if the match is cancelled, ends tied, or is delayed beyond the market’s rule window without a winner. [2][3]

The historical frame here is straightforward: tennis qualification markets typically move hardest when there is uncertainty over whether a match will be completed, not when a player already leads in probability. Polymarket’s own market page shows this event sitting at 100% YES, while official ATP scoring pages for the same tie indicate the match concluded with **Jan Choinski winning 7-6(5), 6-4**, which is consistent with a one-sided terminal price rather than an open two-way contest. In other words, the market is best read as a settlement instrument now, not a live handicap on form or serve quality. [2][4][6]

For traders still watching the contract mechanics, the remaining catalysts are procedural rather than sporting: any official ATP correction, an integrity review, or a dispute over whether the scheduled match actually started before a retirement would matter more than fresh performance data. Live-score listings placed the qualifying match on Court 2 at Eastbourne, and ATP live and archive pages are the cleanest references for whether the result is final and eligible for settlement under the market’s rules. [5][6][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.