Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Leandro Riedi

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Roland Garros qualifying match at 0% YES for Gianluca Cadenasso, which means the contract is effectively saying Leandro Riedi is the only priced outcome unless the market is re-marked by new trading. On Polymarket, the position settles in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens, so the key question is not the scoreline in isolation but whether Cadenasso actually advances before the settlement deadline. The market description also matters: if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, it resolves to 50-50 rather than a straight win for either side.

The historical read on a 0% market is that it often reflects thin liquidity, a stale order book, or a result that the crowd considers virtually certain, rather than a true impossibility. In tennis qualification markets, short odds can move sharply around live score updates, withdrawals, retirements and official result feeds, especially where the fixture is on the edge of completion. Comparable cases on Polymarket and other event contracts have shown that the practical risk is not only who wins, but whether the match is completed cleanly enough for normal settlement.

For traders, the main catalysts are the tournament schedule, any late court updates, and official status changes from Roland Garros or match-data providers. Sofascore and Flashscore list the fixture for 20 May in Paris, while ESPN’s player page shows Cadenasso’s qualifying run and the scheduled meeting with Riedi. If play is postponed, interrupted, or a retirement is recorded, the market can hinge on the exact point at which the match is deemed started and whether a winner is formally declared within the seven-day window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.