Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is showing 0% for Edas Butvilas to advance against Alexander Bublik, which on a USDC market built from Polygon conditional tokens means the contract is currently priced as a near-certain Bublik win rather than a balanced toss-up. The underlying match is the Geneva Open round of 16 meeting scheduled in Geneva, and the market resolves on which player advances, not on set score or margin.

That pricing is consistent with the wider tennis market and the public ranking gap: Bublik is the world No. 10, while Butvilas is far outside the top tier and entered as a qualifier. Recent previews from Bleacher Nation and Lines both framed Bublik as the clear favourite, with listed moneyline prices around -325 and Polymarket implied strength near 81% for Bublik. In past ATP clay matches, market prices tend to stay lopsided when a seeded player faces a much lower-ranked opponent, but they can move sharply if the favourite is forced into a long match, has fitness concerns, or the match is delayed and pulled into the market’s seven-day settlement window.

The main catalysts for holders are simple: whether the match is actually completed, whether there is any official withdrawal or walkover, and whether ATP or tournament scheduling changes push it beyond the settlement deadline. Sofascore and the ATP live centre both listed the match for 20 May, so traders should watch for any start-time slippage, injury news, or weather disruption in Geneva. If the match is not played at all, or drifts beyond seven days without a winner, the market falls back to 50-50 under the contract terms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.