Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this contract pinned at 100% YES, so on Polygon the USDC conditional token is already pricing in a Roberto Carballes Baena win or at least a resolution that would pay out on that side. For users, the important point is that the market is not just about who is favoured on clay; it also depends on whether the qualifying final is completed cleanly before the settlement window closes on 2026-05-29T09:00:00Z. If the match is not played, is voided, or runs beyond the seven-day cutoff without a winner, the contract falls back to 50-50 rather than resolving to either player.

From a form-and-context angle, this is a clay-court qualifying match at Roland Garros between two established tour-level baseliners, both of whom are far more comfortable on slower surfaces than on hard courts. Head-to-head records and past clay results matter more here than ranking noise alone, because qualifying matches at a Slam can be tight and often hinge on serve consistency, long exchanges and fitness over best-of-three sets. Comparable markets around Grand Slam qualifying can look decisive late in the day and still be exposed to weather interruptions, medical withdrawals or late scheduling changes, which is why a contract already at the ceiling should still be read alongside the event mechanics.

The main catalysts are simple: official draw and order-of-play updates from Roland Garros, any change to the match time, and whether either player withdraws before first ball. Score services such as SofaScore and Flashscore already list the fixture for 22 May, while bookmakers have also posted markets for the same tie, which suggests it is expected to go ahead. Traders should watch for rain delays in Paris and any on-the-day injury reports, because a postponement large enough to push the match outside the seven-day settlement window would alter the payout path even if the underlying tennis still gets played later.

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Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dellien across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.