Claude Mythos released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic confirmed on 26 March 2026 that Claude Mythos, an unreleased model described as a significant capability leap in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity tasks, exists and is undergoing early access testing following a data breach. The Polymarket contract currently prices release by 30 April 2026 at 0%, reflecting trader conviction that Anthropic will not formally launch the model within the next five weeks. Settlement hinges on whether Anthropic releases Claude Mythos or explicitly confirms a released model matches the leaked specifications—a narrow gate that excludes limited beta programmes or rebranded variants.

Anthropic's historical release cadence offers limited precedent. Claude 3 family models (Opus, Sonnet, Haiku) rolled out between March and May 2024 with public announcements preceding availability by days rather than months. The company has typically announced major releases through official channels rather than allowing leaks to drive disclosure timelines. A 0% market price suggests traders assess the 30 April deadline as incompatible with Anthropic's standard go-to-market practices, particularly given the reputational sensitivity around uncontrolled disclosure.

Key catalysts centre on Anthropic's official communications. Any press release, blog post, or API documentation explicitly naming Claude Mythos as released would trigger resolution. Traders should monitor Anthropic's website, developer portal updates, and earnings calls—the company has no scheduled earnings before the settlement date. The early access testing phase could extend indefinitely without formal release, leaving the contract unresolved unless Anthropic makes a definitive public statement about availability.

Methodology

We track Claude Mythos released by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.