How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at a low single-digit chance of a yes outcome, with shares on Polygon and USDC-backed conditional tokens reflecting a market view that the IMF Portwatch count for 11–17 May will land above the relevant threshold only if traffic normalises quickly. For a trader, that means the key question is not whether vessels are still moving, but whether the cumulative weekly transit calls can recover enough to beat the range implied by the order book before settlement uses Portwatch’s published data.

The nearest comparables are the recent Hormuz shipping disruptions, where vessel movements fell sharply after March’s escalation and then began to stabilise unevenly. UANI said that before the conflict, about 138 vessels a day crossed the strait, while ShipFinder reported at least 54 ships transited between 11 and 17 May, up from 25 the previous week. That pattern matters because weekly resolution depends on the aggregate across all vessel classes Portwatch counts, not just tankers, so even a partial reopening in flows can move the final tally materially.

Watch for fresh port and routing notices, especially from shipowners, insurers and regional operators, as well as any updated Portwatch downloads for the final settlement week. Reuters and Lloyd’s List have both tracked traffic resuming in fits and starts after earlier stoppages, with some cargo still moving despite security warnings. The market should react most to any renewed restrictions, convoy arrangements, or reports of vessels diverting away from the strait, because those affect the weekly total directly and can change the resolution outcome before the final IMF data release.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.