Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream | 55% |
| O/U 161.5 | 52% |
| O/U 162.5 | 52% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Veronica Burton: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cecilia Zandalasini: Points O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Rhyne Howard: Assists O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Assists O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Allisha Gray: Points O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Angel Reese: Points O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jordin Canada: Assists O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Veronica Burton: Points O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
Market context
The Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta Dream prediction market currently prices this outcome at 55% YES. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for July 4 at 1:00PM ET: If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the Atlanta Dream win, the market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $145K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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