Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Global Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs Global Esports (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs Global Esports (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-8.5) vs Global Esports (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs Global Esports (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs Global Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs Global Esports (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs Global Esports (+5.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs Global Esports (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs Global Esports (+7.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs Global Esports (+9.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-9.5) vs Global Esports (+9.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs Global Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-11.5) vs Global Esports (+11.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-10.5) vs Global Esports (+10.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Valorant: MIBR vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. This market refers to the Valorant match between MIBR and Global Esports in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 3 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win …
Methodology
We track Valorant: MIBR vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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