UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this Jesus Aguilar v Rei Tsuruya flyweight market at 49% YES, so the contract is effectively pricing a near coin-flip on the fighter named in the market. On Polymarket, that means traders are buying or selling conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon, with the payout depending entirely on the UFC’s official result rather than any scorecard speculation or commentary. The current line suggests the market is not leaning hard towards either wrestler-grappler side or the more established name, which is usually where small updates in camp news or weigh-in form can matter most.

The frame for reading a sub-50% price is that UFC markets often move sharply once match-up dynamics are better understood, especially in lower-weight bouts where pace, takedowns and control time can swing rounds without a finish. Aguilar has been involved in recent flyweight match-ups against grappling-heavy opposition, while Tsuruya is being priced as a live threat in a fight that is scheduled for the prelims on 30 May. Comparable markets in UFC often stay tight until fight week, then re-rate after weigh-ins, face-offs and any late card shuffles clarify whether the bout stays intact and at flyweight.

For traders, the main catalysts are the official UFC bout sheet, ceremonial weigh-ins, and any change to the event’s running order or weight class, because the market only resolves off the UFC’s final declaration. The settlement window runs through 31 May, so an on-time result should resolve cleanly, but a no contest, cancellation or postponement beyond 13 June would push it to 50-50 under the market rules. The most relevant updates will be UFC announcements and reliable fight-week reporting rather than speculative previews, since the token price will track whether both men remain on the card and make weight.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.