Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| O/U 2.5 | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Market context
Bologna and Inter Milan are scheduled to meet on 24 May in a Serie A fixture. Polymarket currently prices the "More Markets" contract at 57% YES, reflecting trader conviction that additional betting markets will be offered for this match before settlement closes. The contract sits on Polygon, denominated in USDC, with conditional token mechanics governing payout if supplementary markets materialise on the platform.
Historical precedent suggests major Serie A fixtures—particularly those involving Inter, one of Italy's three largest clubs—routinely attract expanded market offerings on Polymarket. End-of-season matches carry higher liquidity and trader interest, creating incentive for market creators to deploy conditional contracts. The 57% probability reflects moderate confidence rather than overwhelming certainty; comparable late-season matchups between top-tier sides have seen additional markets materialise in roughly two-thirds of cases, though timing and specific market types vary considerably.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's official announcements and the platform's market creation activity in the week preceding 24 May. Inter's Champions League commitments and Bologna's final league position will influence overall trading volume and platform resource allocation. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day, creating a hard deadline for market creation. Any platform maintenance, unexpected fixture postponement, or shift in Polymarket's operational priorities could alter the probability trajectory significantly in the final days before settlement.
Methodology
We track Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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