Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing a Bologna victory at 26% on USDC/Polygon conditional tokens ahead of the Serie A fixture on 24 May 2026. The underlying match pits a mid-table Bologna side against Internazionale, the defending champions and perennial title contenders. Settlement hinges on the final whistle result; draws and Inter wins are priced into the remaining 74% of the probability space.

Bologna's recent record against top-six opposition provides the clearest historical lens. Over the past three seasons, Bologna have won roughly one in seven matches against sides competing for European qualification, with most victories coming at home. Inter, conversely, have lost only twice at away grounds in Serie A since 2024, and their squad depth—particularly in midfield and attack—typically overwhelms mid-tier opponents. The 26% YES price reflects Inter's structural advantage and Bologna's historical underperformance in such fixtures, though home advantage at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara carries measurable weight in Serie A outcomes.

Traders should monitor team news in the final fortnight before settlement. Inter's injury status, particularly among their forward line, could shift probabilities materially if key players are unavailable. Bologna's form trajectory in May matters too; a run of wins would tighten the odds, whilst defeats would likely push YES lower. Fixture congestion in late May—both sides may have European commitments or cup finals—could affect squad rotation decisions. Official lineups released 90 minutes before kickoff will be the final catalyst before the settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on match day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.