North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026 is a single-slot tournament where only one team from the region can advance to the global Group Stage. Currently, Polymarket prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting a market consensus that no North American team will qualify. This price sits on the Polygon chain, where USDC funds conditional tokens that resolve strictly against official tournament data. The zero probability is not an abstract prediction but a direct on-chain signal that the market sees the slot as effectively unattainable for the region at this moment.

Historically, North America has struggled to secure TI slots in recent cycles, with the region often failing to win its regional qualifier despite strong open qualifier performances. In TI 2025, the North American slot was won by a team from another region, and similar patterns occurred in TI 2024, where the NA regional winner did not advance. These precedents frame the current 0% price as a logical extension of a long-term trend where the region’s best teams consistently fall short in the final regional stage, making the market’s pessimism grounded in repeated real-world outcomes.

Traders should monitor the official TI 2026 schedule and any late announcements regarding team participation, as the qualifier runs from June 24 to June 26 with results confirmed by June 28. A key catalyst is the final list of Group Stage participants, which must be published before August 15, 2026, to avoid the market resolving to "Other". Recent news from Dota 2 confirms the qualifier cycle is active and the slot is one per region, with the full field decided once qualifiers wrap [2]. Any delay in publishing the official list or cancellation of the event would trigger the "Other" resolution, making these dependencies critical for on-chain token holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.