Cavaliers vs. Knicks

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks is priced at 53% YES on Polymarket, meaning the crowd is leaning slightly towards the Knicks contract side in a market settled in USDC on Polygon through conditional tokens. With Game 2 scheduled for 8:00pm ET on Thursday, traders are effectively paying up for New York to hold serve at home after taking Game 1, rather than treating the series score as the main driver in isolation.

The current line makes more sense when set against comparable playoff spots where a lower-seeded team has already stolen the opener but the market still hesitates to move decisively. A 53% probability is not a statement of dominance; it is a narrow edge that leaves room for a fast reprice if pre-game injury news, starting line-up changes or in-game momentum shifts alter the expected result. In Polymarket terms, the contract resolves on the final score, including overtime, so late-game fouling or an extra period can matter as much as the first-half trend.

The main catalysts to watch are injury reports, any last-minute designation changes, and whether either side confirms a rotation adjustment before tip-off. ESPN and NBA injury listings remain the most relevant public checks close to game time, while the league schedule has already confirmed the 21 May start. Because the market stays open until the game is completed if postponed, traders also need to watch for any venue, broadcast or logistical delay that could push settlement beyond the current window; a cancellation with no make-up game would trigger a 50-50 outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Cavaliers vs. Knicks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.