Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this Pirates v Cardinals contract at 28% YES, so the market is giving Pittsburgh only a modest chance of winning the game in St Louis. On Polymarket, that means users are pricing the result through USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, with the contract resolving to the Pirates if they win the official final. The setup matters because the market is not pricing the teams in the abstract; it is pricing a single game with a fixed settlement rule, including the possibility of postponement, cancellation or a tie.

Recent head-to-head results point towards St Louis having the clearer recent edge. The Cardinals swept Pittsburgh 4-0 in late April, including a 10-5 win at PNC Park, and StatMuse shows St Louis has won five straight against the Pirates while batting .264 across that stretch. Pittsburgh, though, responded with a 7-0 shutout on 20 May at Busch Stadium, led by Konnor Griffin’s four-hit game and a clean bullpen effort, which is one reason the price is not even lower.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starters, late lineup changes and any rest decisions before the 1:15 pm ET first pitch. The game is already scheduled, so the key dependency is whether both clubs run out regular line-ups after Wednesday’s result and whether there are any weather or postponement issues that would keep the contract open. ESPN and MLB’s official game pages are the practical sources to watch for the final status, with the settlement ultimately tied to the recognised final statistics rather than market chatter.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.