Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Market context

The Oakland Athletics travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles on 10 May at 1:35PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. Polymarket currently prices Athletics victory at 0% YES, reflecting the conditional token structure on Polygon where USDC stakes determine the payout if Oakland wins. This extreme pricing suggests either heavy Baltimore backing or minimal liquidity in the Athletics side of the order book.

The 0% probability mirrors historical patterns where teams with significantly worse records or facing elite opposition trade at near-zero prices on prediction markets, though such extremes often contain mispricing opportunities. The Athletics finished 2024 with a 52-110 record, among baseball's weakest, whilst Baltimore won 98 games and competed for playoff positioning. However, single-game outcomes remain inherently volatile; even heavily favoured teams lose roughly 35-40% of their games across a season.

Traders monitoring this contract should track roster availability announcements and weather conditions closer to game day, as these shift single-game probabilities materially. The settlement window extends to 17 May 2026, providing time for any postponements to resolve. Recent injury reports or bullpen usage from Baltimore's previous games could affect pitching matchups. The Athletics' recent performance trends and any lineup changes warrant attention, though the current 0% pricing suggests the market has already heavily discounted their chances regardless of such developments.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.