New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Mets travel to Miami for a day game on 24 May, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices a Mets victory at 44 per cent, implying roughly even odds between the two franchises despite New York's stronger regular-season positioning. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders holding YES tokens profit if the Mets win; NO tokens pay out for a Marlins victory. Settlement occurs against official MLB records, with the market remaining open through 31 May should postponement occur.

New York enters May as a division favourite with a winning record, whilst Miami typically underperforms in head-to-head matchups against stronger East opponents. Historical data from the past three seasons shows the Mets win approximately 55–60 per cent of games against the Marlins, suggesting the current 44 per cent YES pricing may undervalue Mets chances relative to seasonal trends. However, day games introduce volatility; teams travelling into Miami for afternoon fixtures have shown marginally reduced performance, particularly when fatigued from night games the previous evening.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, expected within 48 hours of the fixture. Recent roster moves or injury reports from either club could shift the probability meaningfully; the Marlins' pitching depth remains thin following mid-season departures. Weather conditions at loanDepot park—afternoon heat and humidity—occasionally favour certain pitching profiles. The Mets' bullpen depth relative to Miami's represents another material factor, given day-game fatigue patterns historically favour teams with stronger relief options.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.