Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 57% |
| O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 47% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 33% |
| NRFI | 30% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 25% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 22% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Extra Innings | 11% |
Market context
Market consensus: 72% chance of milwaukee brewers vs. st. louis cardinals. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for July 6 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $341K.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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