Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the Guardians to win this MLB game at about 39%, with the contract trading as a USDC position on Polygon through conditional tokens. That implies the Phillies are priced as the clear favourite, but not a dominant one, and the market is still close enough that team news or a late pitching change could move it materially before first pitch. Settlement will follow the official final result once the game is completed, so if there is a postponement the market stays open rather than resolving early.

The number also sits against a modest historical edge for Philadelphia in this matchup. Recent head-to-head data show the Phillies have had the better of the series overall, winning 10 of the 18 meetings listed by AIScore, while Cleveland has taken 8. The teams’ recent meeting referenced by MLB.com was a 3-0 Phillies win at Progressive Field, which fits the broader shape of a series in which Philadelphia has generally produced the stronger run prevention and Cleveland has struggled to generate offence consistently.

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any line-up scratches, and whether the teams’ current home/away splits are reflected in the final price. CBS Sports lists the Phillies as roughly -184 to -187 with an over/under of 6.5, which is broadly consistent with a home favourite, while ESPN’s matchup page shows Cleveland 30-22 and Philadelphia 25-25 entering the game. Any late announcement on pitching or a weather-related delay would matter because the contract remains live until the game is officially finished.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.