Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Houston Astros at just **3% YES**, so the contract is trading as a strong longshot on Polygon with settlement in USDC via conditional tokens. The matchup is listed for Houston’s Daikin Park, and the exchange is still live because the event has not yet fully settled under the market rules.[5][3]

That probability sits well below conventional pre-game pricing. Recent market screens showed Houston favoured around **-135 to -156** on the moneyline, while Cleveland was roughly **+131** in one listing, with the total near **8.5** runs.[2][1] Cleveland entered at **41-36** and Houston at **36-42**, which helps explain why a Guardians win is priced as an outsized upset even before any late roster or pitching news lands.[4][1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the confirmed line-up card, starting pitcher status, and any last-minute scratch or weather-related delay, because Polymarket stays open until the game is completed and a postponement pushes settlement back rather than closing the market immediately.[5] The key dependency is the official MLB final result: if the game is cancelled without a make-up, or ends tied, the market resolves **50-50** instead of a straight winner/loser payout.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.