Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Cleveland Guardians at 16% to win today’s game against the Detroit Tigers, with USDC locked into conditional tokens on Polygon and the market set to settle against the official result once the game is final. That implies a strong lean towards Detroit, but it is still an away-win price, not a dead-certainty: baseball markets can move sharply on a late pitching change, line-up news or weather, and the on-chain structure means the contract only resolves after the recognised final statistics are available.

The recent results frame that number. Cleveland beat Detroit 8-2 on Monday, then the teams split the next two meetings, with the Tigers taking a one-run game and the Guardians responding in the rubber match; ESPN and MLB’s game logs show a competitive series rather than a one-sided one. Earlier in the season, the Guardians have also shown they can score in bursts, which matters for a low-probability away price: a 16% implied chance is consistent with a team that is often the underdog, but not one that is out of the contest if the game stays close into the later innings.

Traders should watch the starting pitching announcement, any late rest decisions for regulars, and the weather at first pitch, because all three can shift the fair price more than the recent head-to-head record. The market description also matters operationally: postponement keeps the contract open until the make-up is played, while a cancellation or tie would settle 50-50, so the calendar around the May 21 start and any rescheduling is relevant to final resolution. For Polymarket users, the key is not just who looks stronger on paper, but whether the game is actually completed under the stated MLB rules and official stats.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.