Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cincinnati Reds travel to Queens on 25 May for a 4:10 PM ET matchup against the New York Mets. Polymarket currently prices a Reds victory at 44%, implying the Mets as 56% favourites. This conditional token sits on Polygon, settled in USDC, with the market remaining open through 1 June should postponement occur. The 12-percentage-point spread reflects the Mets' home-field advantage and their positioning within the National League East competitive structure at this stage of the season.

Historical matchup data between these franchises shows the Reds have won 48 of their last 100 meetings, though venue matters considerably—the Mets hold a stronger record at Citi Field over the past three seasons. Cincinnati's recent form and pitching rotation depth relative to New York's injury status will determine whether the current 44% probability undervalues or overvalues the visitors. The Reds' ability to score runs against Mets starters has fluctuated; their 2024 performance against comparable National League East pitching suggests neither team possesses overwhelming dominance.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 48 hours before game time. Recent roster moves—particularly any late-inning bullpen additions or position-player injuries—could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at Citi Field on game day may also influence run-scoring expectations. The settlement window's extension to 1 June accommodates potential rain delays common in late May, though no make-up game cancellation would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.