RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

RCD Mallorca will host Villarreal CF in a La Liga fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC that same day. The market currently prices a Mallorca victory at 30% implied probability, denominated in USDC on Polygon. This reflects the conditional token structure where YES holders profit if Mallorca wins outright; draws and Villarreal wins resolve to NO.

Historically, Mallorca's home record against mid-table La Liga sides has been mixed, though the club has shown resilience in recent seasons following their promotion stability. Villarreal, as a consistent European-competition participant, typically commands stronger odds in away fixtures. The 30% probability sits above Mallorca's baseline win-rate against comparable opponents but below what their home advantage alone would suggest, indicating the market weights Villarreal's superior squad depth and recent form substantially.

Key variables for traders include team news released in the week preceding the match—any injuries to Villarreal's attacking players or Mallorca's defensive core could shift the probability meaningfully. Fixture congestion matters; if either side plays a European midweek fixture beforehand, fatigue becomes a material factor. La Liga's official injury bulletins, typically released Friday before Sunday fixtures, will be the primary catalyst. The settlement window's tight closure at noon on match day means late-breaking team-sheet changes or weather disruptions could affect final pricing in the hours before kickoff.

Methodology

We track RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.