Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sevilla FC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sevilla FC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
RC Celta de Vigo will travel to Seville to face Sevilla FC on 23 May 2026 in a La Liga fixture scheduled for 15:00 ET. The current Polymarket pricing shows zero probability assigned to the "More Markets" contract, suggesting either minimal liquidity in this particular conditional token pair on Polygon or that traders have not yet begun positioning ahead of the settlement window closure on 23 May at 19:00 UTC. The contract's structure—denominated in USDC and settled through conditional tokens—means any YES resolution depends on specific market conditions being met during or after the match, though the exact resolution criteria remain to be clarified by the market creator.
Historical context from La Liga's final-day fixtures reveals that May matches often carry unpredictable outcomes when teams have already secured European qualification or relegation. Celta finished 2024–25 mid-table with limited European ambitions, whilst Sevilla's trajectory has been volatile, oscillating between Champions League contention and mid-table finishes. Previous seasons show that late-May La Liga encounters between these sides have generated modest trading volumes on derivative markets, with conditional token pairs typically activating only when underlying match conditions create secondary betting opportunities.
Traders monitoring this contract should track team news releases and injury updates through official La Liga channels and club communications in the week preceding the match. Sevilla's squad depth and Celta's form in the final weeks of the season will influence whether bookmakers and on-chain liquidity providers perceive sufficient uncertainty to activate deeper market layers. The settlement window's tight closure—just hours after kick-off—means position entry must occur well before match day.
Methodology
We track RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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