Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury defeated the Indiana Fever 111–109 in their WNBA matchup on 24 June 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, with the final score already settled and the market resolved to “Phoenix Mercury”[4][6]. This result confirms the crowd-implied 100% YES probability was accurate, as the game was neither postponed nor cancelled, and the outcome was determined by the final score including any overtime periods[1].

Historically, conditional tokens on Polymarket have resolved swiftly once on-chain data confirms game completion, particularly when USDC settlements on Polygon are triggered by official score feeds[1]. Comparable cases from recent WNBA markets show that when a team wins outright without cancellation, the market resolves to the winner within minutes, mirroring today’s outcome where the Mercury’s victory was decisive and unambiguous[4][6].

Traders should monitor post-game injury reports and schedule dependencies, as Caitlin Clark’s exit due to a back injury may influence future Fever performance and betting lines[6]. Recent coverage from CBS Sports highlights this development as a key catalyst for upcoming matchups, suggesting that monitoring team health announcements will be critical for assessing future market probabilities[6]. No further action is needed for this resolved contract, as the on-chain mechanics have already executed the settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.