Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-6.5) vs Karmine Corp (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs Karmine Corp (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Paper Rex (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs Karmine Corp (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Paper Rex (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Paper Rex (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Paper Rex (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: karmine corp vs paper rex (bo3) - esports world cup group b stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between Karmine Corp and Paper Rex in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 4 at 9:45AM ET. This market …
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Paper Rex (BO3) - Esports … on Polymarket Legit?
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →