UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Market context

Theodor Berggren faces Daniil Donchenko tonight at UFC Fight Night in Baku, a welterweight prelim where Donchenko is heavily favoured to win by TKO[1][2]. On Polymarket, this contract currently trades at 0% for Berggren, reflecting the market’s near-total conviction that Donchenko will dominate the bout[1]. The USDC-denominated conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing this outcome as a certainty, with no liquidity supporting Berggren’s victory despite his chaotic blitz style[1].

Historically, late-replacement fighters like Berggren—who debuts after Andreas Gustafsson was pulled—rarely overcome established opponents with superior boxing, as seen in similar UFC prelims where underdogs failed to land decisive strikes[2]. Donchenko’s 14-2 record and 9:44 average fight time contrast sharply with Berggren’s 8-3 profile, mirroring past cases where technical boxers overwhelmed chaotic kickers in welterweight contests[6]. This 0% pricing aligns with those precedents, where market confidence in the boxer’s edge was absolute.

Traders should monitor the official UFC fight card announcement for any schedule shifts or no-contest rulings before the settlement window closes on 28 June[5]. Donchenko’s pre-fight interview confirmed his return to the octagon with full focus, suggesting no external dependencies will disrupt the bout[8]. With DraftKings odds at -500 for Donchenko and the over 1.5 rounds priced at -135, the on-chain market’s 0% Berggren probability is consistent with traditional betting platforms’ expectations[1]. Any deviation from the scheduled prelim slot would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, but current indicators point to a clean contest.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legit? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.