Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians on 12 June at 7:10 PM ET in an AL Central matchup. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, meaning traders are assigning zero probability to a Tigers victory. This extreme pricing reflects either a decisive consensus view or insufficient liquidity in the conditional token pair on Polygon—USDC collateral backing both YES and NO sides. With settlement not until 19 June, the market has a week to absorb new information before the game concludes.

Historical precedent suggests such extreme probabilities (0% or 100%) in baseball markets typically emerge when one team faces catastrophic roster depletion or when liquidity providers have simply not yet entered the market. In May 2024, similar lopsided pricing appeared in MLB matchups involving teams missing multiple starting pitchers to injury, only to shift materially once backup rotation details clarified. The Tigers' current injury status and Cleveland's recent form will determine whether this pricing holds or whether arbitrage opportunities emerge as game day approaches.

Traders should monitor pitching announcements—specifically whether Detroit confirms its starting pitcher and whether any late-inning bullpen availability changes. Cleveland's recent win-loss record and home-field performance metrics matter equally. Weather forecasts for Cleveland on 12 June could affect game conditions. Any roster moves, trades, or unexpected injuries announced between now and game time will likely trigger repricing of the conditional tokens, particularly if they affect either team's pitching depth or offensive capability.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.