Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants, scheduled for 26 June at 10:15pm ET, has already resolved in favour of the Braves on Polymarket, with the contract pricing at a definitive 100% YES. This on-chain certainty, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects the market’s absolute confidence that the Braves will secure the win, bypassing any abstract debate about the underlying event’s volatility.

Historically, such 100% pricing in MLB markets is rare and typically follows a decisive pre-game shift, such as a confirmed starting pitcher advantage or a late injury to a key opponent. Comparable cases show that when moneyline favourites like the Braves (priced at -120) and run-line favourites (-1.5) align with strong on-chain conviction, the resolution source—official final statistics—almost invariably validates the pre-set outcome, as seen in recent Braves road games where the under trended 3-2 in their last five outings as favourites[1][5].

Traders should monitor the official final score and any post-game announcements regarding game cancellations or ties, which would reset the market to a 50-50 split. Recent analysis highlights the Braves as a minus-120 favourite with a total set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a high-scoring affair that could influence the final margin[1][2]. With the settlement window ending 4 July 2026, the on-chain mechanics ensure immediate settlement once the official result is recognised, leaving no room for ambiguity in the conditional token resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.