Sweden vs. Tunisia

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June, with the match scheduled for Sunday afternoon in North America. Polymarket's conditional token contract currently prices a Swedish victory at 51%, reflecting near-parity between the two sides. This probability sits on the USDC/Polygon infrastructure, where traders hold YES or NO tokens that settle to $1 or $0 depending on the final result. The market implies Tunisia has roughly a 24% chance of winning outright, with the remaining probability distributed across draws.

Historically, Sweden holds a significant edge in direct competition. The sides have met twice in World Cup qualifying cycles, with Sweden winning both encounters—3–0 in 2012 and 2–0 in 2013. Sweden also finished ahead of Tunisia in their most recent competitive group stage at the 2018 World Cup, though both exited in the group phase. Tunisia's record against European opposition remains mixed; they have occasionally upset higher-ranked teams but typically struggle against sides with Sweden's technical depth and physical conditioning.

Key variables for traders centre on squad availability and final preparation. Sweden's domestic league (Allsvenskan) concludes in November 2025, giving players a full six-month window to build fitness ahead of June. Tunisia's Ligue Professionnelle 1 runs through May, potentially leaving their squad with less recovery time. Injuries to key midfielders or forwards on either side could shift the probability materially. FIFA's official team news releases and squad announcements in late May 2026 will be critical decision points for repositioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.