Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026 at 5:00 PM ET, Norway and England will meet in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final at the Estadio Azteca, with the market resolving strictly on the 90-minute result. Today, Polymarket prices the “Norway vs. England – Exact Score” contract at 7% YES for the listed outcome, reflecting the on-chain conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network. This probability sits against a backdrop of historic volatility: Norway’s stunning 2-1 knockout of Brazil, powered by Erling Haaland’s late double, marks their deepest World Cup run ever, while England’s 3-2 victory over Mexico—achieved despite playing most of the second half with ten men—showcases their resilience in tight knockout games. Such high-scoring, dramatic Round of 16 clashes often precede unpredictable quarter-finals, where defensive frailties (Norway concedes 2.33 goals per game) and attacking prowess (Norway scores 2.67 per game) create fertile ground for exact-score surprises.

Traders must monitor two immediate catalysts: the official squad announcements expected within 48 hours and any weather updates for the Azteca venue, which could influence playing conditions. Recent coverage by talkSPORT highlights Haaland’s physical readiness following his Brazil performance, while ESPN notes England’s tactical adjustments after their Mexico match, suggesting both teams may deploy aggressive pressing styles. With Norway averaging 48.8% possession and England historically strong in transition, the match could favour a high-scoring draw or narrow win—outcomes that would invalidate the exact-score contract. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 11 July, and any postponement will keep the market open until completion, per USDC conditional token rules. No moralising is needed; the facts alone dictate the risk-reward profile for this on-chain bet.

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Methodology

We track Norway vs. England - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.