Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland are scheduled to meet in a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices the conditional token for "More Markets" at 5% YES, implying traders believe the probability of additional market contracts opening for this fixture is low. The settlement window closes 14 June 2026 at 01:00 UTC, giving roughly 16 hours after kick-off for resolution. On-chain liquidity sits thin; traders holding USDC on Polygon can mint conditional tokens against the base market, but the spread between bid and ask reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Polymarket's operations team will expand the market suite beyond the initial offerings.

Historical precedent suggests major tournament matches—particularly those involving smaller federations—receive limited market proliferation. During the 2022 World Cup, matches involving nations outside the traditional betting strongholds saw fewer derivative contracts than European or South American fixtures. Haiti's participation in 2026 marks only their second World Cup appearance; Scotland, absent since 1998, carries modest betting infrastructure relative to established footballing nations. The 5% probability reflects this pattern: Polymarket typically concentrates liquidity on headline outcomes rather than fragmenting it across ancillary markets for lower-profile matchups.

Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any last-minute scheduling changes, which could trigger market expansion if broadcast agreements or regulatory requirements shift. Polymarket's market creation typically follows demand signals from its user base; sustained trading volume on the base Haiti–Scotland contract could prompt operators to launch additional conditional markets. Current low probability reflects the baseline expectation that this fixture will remain a single-contract offering.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.