Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Just Players (-3.5) vs Lavked (+3.5) | 75% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lavked (-3.5) vs Just Players (+3.5) | 75% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 74% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lavked (-6.5) vs Just Players (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Lavked (-9.5) vs Just Players (+9.5) | 26% |
| Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Just Players (+1.5) | 23% |
| Match Winner | 2% |
Market context
Market consensus: 75% chance of counter-strike: lavked vs just players (bo3) - european pro league series 8 group a. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Lavked and Just Players in the European Pro League Series 8 Group A, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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