Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 36.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 38.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 99% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Match O/U 40.5 | 87% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 78% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 4 Winner | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 22% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm | 11% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 5% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: marco trungelliti vs martin damm. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Martin Damm in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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