Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Marton Fucsovics in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van As…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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