Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| Colombia O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| Team to Advance | 80% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Colombia O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 50% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 50% |
| Ghana 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ghana 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Ghana O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Both Teams to Score | 40% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| Colombia (-1.5) | 37% |
| Ghana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Colombia O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 23% |
| O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 20% |
| Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Colombia (-2.5) | 16% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 13% |
| Ghana O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Colombia (-3.5) | 7% |
| Colombia (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 8.5 | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Ghana (-1.5) | 3% |
| Ghana O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 7.5 | 2% |
| Ghana (-2.5) | 1% |
| Ghana (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| Colombia (-5.5) | 1% |
| Ghana (-4.5) | 0% |
| Ghana (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Colombia vs. Ghana - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 90%. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 3 at 9:30 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Colombia vs. Ghana - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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