Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
14% | 86% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
14% | 86% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia | 14% |
| Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia | 13% |
| Switzerland 0 - 0 Colombia | 11% |
| Switzerland 1 - 0 Colombia | 10% |
| Switzerland 0 - 2 Colombia | 9% |
| Switzerland 1 - 2 Colombia | 9% |
| Switzerland 2 - 1 Colombia | 7% |
| Switzerland 2 - 0 Colombia | 5% |
| Switzerland 2 - 2 Colombia | 5% |
| Any Other Score | 5% |
| Switzerland 1 - 3 Colombia | 4% |
| Switzerland 0 - 3 Colombia | 3% |
| Switzerland 3 - 0 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 1 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 2 Colombia | 2% |
| Switzerland 3 - 3 Colombia | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, switzerland vs. colombia - exact score stands at 14% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Switzerland and Colombia, scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Switzerland…
Methodology
We track Switzerland vs. Colombia - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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