Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Nottingham Forest will host Newcastle United on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The conditional YES token on Polymarket currently trades at 23 cents per USDC, implying a 23% probability that Newcastle wins the match. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled date, with outcomes determined by official Premier League records. Traders holding YES tokens on Polygon receive the full conditional payout if Newcastle's final score exceeds Forest's; NO token holders profit if Forest wins or the match ends level.

Forest and Newcastle have occupied mid-table positions in recent seasons, though Newcastle's investment in squad depth under their Saudi-backed ownership has generally positioned them as stronger favourites in direct matchups. Historically, Newcastle's away record against comparable opponents shows mixed results, whilst Forest's home advantage at the City Ground carries statistical weight. The 23% probability reflects Newcastle as underdogs despite their recent spending, suggesting the market prices Forest's home status and current form as meaningful factors.

Key variables for traders include team news released in the week before the fixture—injuries to key players like Newcastle's attacking options or Forest's defensive personnel could shift the probability materially. Fixture congestion in early May may affect squad rotation decisions, particularly if either side contests European or domestic cup finals. Weather conditions at Nottingham on match day and any late tactical announcements from managers will influence in-game dynamics, though these typically emerge too close to kickoff to move markets substantially.

Methodology

We track Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.