Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Burnley and Aston Villa meet at Turf Moor on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a Premier League fixture. The Polymarket contract is pricing a Burnley victory at 32 per cent, implying roughly 2.1:1 odds against the home side. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled match date; USDC on Polygon funds the conditional tokens, with YES resolving on a Burnley win and NO on any other outcome (draw or Villa victory).

Historically, Burnley's home record against top-half sides has been mixed. In the 2024–25 season, Burnley secured promotion back to the Premier League after a Championship campaign, whilst Aston Villa consolidated a top-four finish. Villa's away form has typically been stronger than their home form in recent seasons, yet Burnley's Turf Moor advantage—where they have won roughly 45 per cent of matches in their last two top-flight campaigns—suggests the 32 per cent probability may underweight home-ground effects relative to squad quality differentials.

Traders should monitor team news releases in the week before the match: injury confirmations for key players, particularly Villa's attacking options and Burnley's defensive personnel, will shift the implied probability. Fixture congestion in early May often affects squad rotation decisions. Recent form in April will also matter; a run of wins for either side typically compresses the gap between market odds and underlying win probability. Official Premier League team sheets release roughly 90 minutes before kick-off, after which conditional token prices typically tighten.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.