Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Hull City AFC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hull City AFC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Middlesbrough FC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Hull City and Middlesbrough will contest an EFL Championship fixture on 23 May at 10:30 AM ET, with settlement tied to additional betting markets beyond the standard match outcome. Polymarket's conditional token architecture currently prices this contract at zero, reflecting either minimal trading activity or genuine uncertainty about whether supplementary markets will materialise on-chain. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polygon means any YES resolution depends on both the match occurring and the market creator deploying the promised derivative contracts before the settlement window closes at 14:30 UTC that day.
Historical precedent suggests Championship play-off fixtures and season-finale matches generate fragmented market activity across Polymarket. When secondary markets do launch for high-stakes EFL games, they typically cover player performance thresholds, corner counts, or card accumulation rather than broad outcome variants. The zero probability here may simply reflect that traders are waiting for clarity on what specific markets the creator intends to offer, rather than pricing in non-occurrence of the match itself.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of the market structure from the creator, any late fixture changes (rare but possible in professional football), and whether Middlesbrough or Hull City face competing playoff obligations that might affect squad rotation. Recent EFL scheduling has prioritised fixture congestion management, so confirmation that both clubs are available for the full 90 minutes would likely shift trading. Settlement hinges on timely contract deployment; delays in launching the promised secondary markets could trigger technical disputes over whether the YES condition was satisfied.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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