Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

The Beijing Ducks vs Shanghai Sharks contract is priced at 0% YES on Polymarket, with traders currently assigning no visible chance to a Beijing win on the USDC-settled Polygon market. That means the conditional token for Beijing is effectively being treated as worthless at present, even though settlement will follow the official final score, including overtime, once the CBA game is completed within the window.

Recent head-to-head results suggest why the market may be leaning away from Beijing: Shanghai have won the last two meetings in this series, 99-88 on 17 May and 81-66 on 20 May, after Beijing beat them 87-82 on 15 May. Earlier this season the teams also split results, with Shanghai winning 88-83 on 12 April and Beijing taking a 86-67 game on 20 January. For a Polymarket user, the key point is that a 0% quote does not mean the outcome is impossible; it usually reflects thin liquidity, an extreme consensus, or a market that has already priced in available team-news and matchup form.

The main catalysts are straightforward: starting line-ups, any late injury or rest announcements, and whether the scheduled tip-off at 7:35AM ET proceeds as planned. If the game is postponed, the market stays open until it is played; if it is cancelled without a make-up, it resolves 50-50. Traders should also watch official CBA or team channels for confirmation of availability and any schedule changes, since the contract depends entirely on the completed result rather than pre-game expectations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.