Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Stan Wawrinka, the 39-year-old Swiss three-time Grand Slam champion, faces Jesper de Jong, a Danish player ranked outside the top 100, in the opening round of Roland Garros 2026. The match is scheduled for 25 May at 5:00 AM ET. Polymarket currently prices Wawrinka's advancement at 76%, reflecting the substantial gap in experience and ranking between the two competitors. The conditional token structure on Polygon settles in USDC upon match completion, with the 50-50 resolution clause activated only if the match is cancelled outright or extends beyond seven days without a winner.

Wawrinka's age presents a genuine variable in clay-court endurance, though his record at Roland Garros—including a 2015 title—demonstrates sustained competitiveness on the surface. De Jong has limited ATP main-draw exposure and no significant clay-court pedigree to reference. Historical precedent suggests that unseeded players ranked 100+ rarely upset former Grand Slam champions in opening rounds, particularly when the favourite maintains reasonable fitness. The 24% YES probability (de Jong advance) appears calibrated to account for potential upsets and Wawrinka's age-related vulnerabilities rather than fundamental competitive parity.

Traders should monitor entry lists and draw confirmations as the tournament approaches, since late withdrawals or injury announcements could trigger the 50-50 resolution. Weather conditions on clay—particularly rain delays—carry minor relevance given the seven-day buffer. Any pre-match fitness concerns from either player, typically disclosed through ATP or tournament media channels, would shift the pricing materially.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.