Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legit?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
79% | 21% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
79% | 21% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli | 79% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 74% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 2 Winner | 68% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 3 Winner | 68% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 1 Winner | 67% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 61% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 60% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Match O/U 36.5 | 54% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Match O/U 38.5 | 47% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 41% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Match O/U 40.5 | 40% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 34% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 79% chance of wimbledon atp: alex de minaur vs flavio cobolli. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Legit?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Legit? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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