Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Senegal and Iraq face off in a FIFA World Cup Group I match at BMO Field in Toronto on 26 June 2026, with the game kicking off at 3:00 PM ET. The prediction market "Senegal vs. Iraq – Exact Score" currently prices the YES outcome at 4%, reflecting the narrow chance that the final score will match one of the explicitly listed exact outcomes. On Polymarket, this contract trades using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens determine settlement based on the official 90-minute result plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 5% probability unless the fixture involves a dominant favourite against a weak opponent with a predictable scoreline. Senegal, qualified for four World Cups including their quarter-final run in 2002, has averaged 1.6 points per match in recent head-to-heads against Iraq, while Iraq has struggled defensively with 2.0 opponent points per game [4][8]. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 show that exact-score probabilities for mid-tier clashes typically hover between 3–6%, aligning with the current 4% pricing.

Traders should monitor the pre-match line-ups announced by FIFA and any late squad updates from both national teams, as injuries or tactical shifts could alter scoring dynamics. Recent training footage shows both sides preparing intensively, with Senegal’s stars and Iraq’s squad completing final drills ahead of the match [5][7]. Additionally, check for any weather advisories for Toronto on 26 June, as rain could suppress goal totals. The official match centre on FIFA’s website will confirm final details before the 19:00 UTC settlement window [6].

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legit??

Zero. Polymarket Legit? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.