IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% probability, implying traders assess a roughly 1-in-9 chance that the final whistle lands on one of the explicitly listed scorelines rather than "Any Other Score." On Polymarket, this conditional token trades against USDC on Polygon; settlement hinges on the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group fixtures typically cluster probability mass around low-scoring draws and narrow victories. Iran's recent tournament record—including their 2022 Qatar campaign—shows they compete defensively; New Zealand, a periodic World Cup participant, rarely generates high-scoring affairs. Group-stage matches between teams of comparable or mismatched strength tend to produce 0–0, 1–0, or 1–1 outcomes more frequently than 3–2 or 4–1 results, though the latter remain possible. The 11% price reflects this distribution: plausible but not heavily favoured.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations as June approaches. Iran's domestic league concludes in May; New Zealand's A-League season ends earlier, potentially affecting player fitness. Fixture congestion in the weeks before the tournament—particularly for players in European clubs—may influence team selection and tactical setup. Confirmation of the final 23-player rosters, typically announced in early June, will clarify available attacking depth on both sides, a material variable for exact-score pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legit?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.