Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Croatia and Ghana face off in a FIFA World Cup Group L match at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on 27 June 2026, with the game kicking off at 5:00 PM ET. On Polymarket today, the contract for an exact score outcome sits at 12% YES, priced in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens that settle only if the final 90-minute result matches one of the listed scores. This probability reflects the tight defensive records of both sides, with Croatia averaging 1.2 points per match and Ghana showing resilience in recent World Cup appearances, including their quarter-final run in 2010[6].

Historically, World Cup matches between European and African teams often end in low-scoring draws or narrow wins, such as Germany’s 2-0 victory over Ghana in 2010 or Croatia’s 1-0 win against Nigeria in 2018. These precedents suggest that a specific exact score like 1-0 or 0-0 is plausible, but the 12% market price implies traders are cautious about the unpredictability of stoppage-time goals. The conditional token structure ensures that only the regulation result counts, excluding extra time and shoot-outs, which aligns with how similar markets have resolved in past tournaments[2].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements from both squads, particularly line-up confirmations and any late injuries, as these can shift the probability significantly. Carlos Queiroz, Ghana’s head coach, addressed the press ahead of the match, highlighting tactical adjustments that could influence scoring patterns[10]. Additionally, weather conditions in Philadelphia and the teams’ recent training sessions, such as Croatia’s pre-match preparation shown in official footage, may serve as catalysts for market movement[4]. With the settlement window ending at 21:00 UTC on 27 June, on-chain liquidity and real-time odds updates will be critical for assessing whether the 12% threshold holds or shifts before the final whistle[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Croatia vs. Ghana - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legit? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legit? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.