Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Senate reconciliation question at 0% YES, so the contract on Polygon is effectively trading as though no passage is expected before the 31 May settlement window closes. For holders of the conditional tokens settled in USDC, the key point is that the market needs a formal Senate passage of a reconciliation bill, not just committee movement, budget instructions, or floor rhetoric.

That 0% print sits against a recent track record of progress rather than complete stasis. On 23 April, the Senate adopted S.Con.Res. 33 by 50-48, and the House later cleared the same budget resolution on 29 April, unlocking reconciliation instructions for the Homeland Security and Judiciary committees. CBO subsequently scored the Senate-side recommendations as adding tens of billions in direct spending, which shows the process has advanced beyond messaging votes. But reconciliation still requires matching legislative text, floor consideration and final passage in the Senate, and the underlying vehicle has been described as narrowly focused on DHS, CBP and ICE funding.

For traders, the immediate catalysts are procedural: committee text due to Budget Committees by 15 May was a key milestone, and the next signals are whether leadership puts a bill on the floor, whether the House and Senate can stay aligned, and whether any last-minute changes force another round of votes. Reuters-style timing risk matters here: if leadership misses the window or splits the package, the market can remain pinned even if negotiations are active. Senate scheduling, whip counts, and any official notice of floor action are the main things to watch before month-end.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.